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Siena Research InstituteSiena College, Loudonville, NY |
For information/comment: Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom: 518-783-2362 (office); 518-456-6073 (home)
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NEW YORK STATE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP 2 PTS
New York City Bests Nation in Future Confidence
Loudonville, NY – New York State’s overall consumer confidence went up 2.0 points in May, and most buying plans are up, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). At 79.3, New York State’s overall confidence is 7.6 points below the nation’s* consumer confidence of 86.9.
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May 2005 Consumer Confidence: |
The Nation |
New York State |
diff. pts |
|
New York State |
Metro New York City |
Upstate NY |
Overall |
86.9 (-0.8) |
79.3 (+2.0) |
7.6 |
79.3 (+2.0) |
84.3 (+3.7) |
70.8 (-0.5) |
|
|
Current |
104.9 (+0.5) |
88.3 (+1.5) |
16.6 |
88.3 (+1.5) |
90.9 (+4.2) |
84.5 (-3.0) |
|
|
Future |
75.3 (-1.7) |
73.5 (+2.2) |
1.8 |
73.5 (+2.2) |
80.0 (+3.4) |
62.0 (+1.2) |
Buying plans are up for furniture, 0.9 of a point to 22.3%; Buying plans are down for cars and trucks, 2.5 points to 14.1%; computers, 1.3 points to 15.9%; homes, 0.8 of a point to 5.3%; and for major home improvements, 1.8 points to 19.6%.
“This month’s confidence clearly illustrates the Upstate/Downstate divide,” said Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “New York City has bounced back nicely from the 2000 recession and the 9/11 attacks. In fact, overall confidence in the City is only a few points below the nation and future confidence is almost 5 points better then the country as a whole. At the same time, New York City’s current confidence is 14 points below the nation. The real downer is Upstate where overall confidence is more then 16 points below the nation and nearly 14 points below the City. Upstate confidence has dropped ten points in the last six months, whereas New York City has climbed seven.”
Each month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer Confidence in New York State (index numbers): April/May 2005(Groups listed in descending order by May’s Overall CCI Rating) |
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Overall |
Current |
Future |
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|
Apr. |
May |
chng |
Apr. |
May |
chng |
Apr. |
May |
chng |
|
Republicans |
85.6 |
93.6 |
8.0 |
98.9 |
101.5 |
2.6 |
77.1 |
88.5 |
11.4 |
|
Higher income |
84.6 |
85.8 |
1.2 |
97.4 |
97.4 |
no chg |
76.4 |
78.3 |
1.9 |
|
Under Age 55 |
80.2 |
85.3 |
5.1 |
88.7 |
91.7 |
3.0 |
74.7 |
81.3 |
6.6 |
|
Metro NYC |
80.6 |
84.3 |
3.7 |
86.8 |
90.9 |
4.2 |
76.6 |
80.0 |
3.4 |
|
Women |
74.5 |
79.7 |
5.2 |
85.6 |
87.5 |
1.9 |
67.4 |
74.7 |
7.3 |
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New York State |
77.3 |
79.3 |
2.0 |
86.8 |
88.3 |
1.5 |
71.3 |
73.5 |
2.2 |
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Men |
80.5 |
79.1 |
-1.4 |
88.7 |
89.4 |
0.7 |
75.2 |
72.5 |
-2.7 |
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Democrats |
74.5 |
76.6 |
2.1 |
83.0 |
87.1 |
4.1 |
69.1 |
69.8 |
0.7 |
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Lower income |
70.4 |
71.7 |
1.3 |
76.6 |
79.2 |
2.6 |
66.4 |
66.9 |
0.5 |
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Age 55+ |
73.5 |
71.1 |
-2.4 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
no chg |
66.2 |
62.3 |
-3.9 |
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Upstate NY |
71.3 |
70.8 |
-0.5 |
87.5 |
84.5 |
-3.0 |
60.8 |
62.0 |
1.2 |
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Overall May CCI Stats: Highest: 93.6 (Republicans) Lowest: 70.8 (Upstate NY)Greatest chg: +8.0 (Republicans) |
Current May CCI Stats: Highest: 101.5 (Republicans) Lowest: 79.2 (lower income)Onlydrop:-3.0 (Upstate NY) |
Future May CCI Stats: Highest: 88.5 (Republicans)Lowest: 62.0 (Upstate NY)Grtst chg:11.4 (Republicans) |
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The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in May 2005 by random telephone calls to 623 New York State residents over the age of 18. As consumer confidence is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply. Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to a specific question, do have a margin of error of + 3.9 points. For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.
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