For
Immediate Release: Wednesday,
February 2, 2005
Microsoft Word version
Loudonville,
NY – New
York State’s overall consumer confidence rose 1.3 points in January,
according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). At
85.5, New York State’s overall confidence is 10.3 points below the
nation.*
|
January
2005 Consumer
Confidence: |
The Nation |
New York State |
diff. pts |
|
New York State
|
Metro
New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
95.8
(-1.3) |
85.5
(+1.3) |
10.3 |
85.5
(+1.3) |
88.0
(+2.4) |
80.0
(-1.6) |
|
|
Current |
110.4
(+3.7) |
93.2
(+0.4) |
17.2 |
93.2
(+0.4) |
92.8
(+1.1) |
93.2
(-1.9) |
|
|
Future |
86.4
(-4.5) |
80.5
(+1.9) |
5.9 |
80.5
(+1.9) |
84.9
(+3.2) |
71.5
(-1.5) |
Buying plans are up for cars and trucks, 2.6 points to 15.6%; for furniture, 0.6 of a point to 22.0%; and for homes, 0.1 of a point to 6.4%. Buying plans are down for computers, -2.9 points to 12.1%; and for major home improvements, 1.5 points to 17.5%.
“After
three lean years, Consumer Confidence in New York State started a recovery in
2004 that is continuing into early 2005,” said Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom,
professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director.
“This month’s increase is somewhat surprising, since the stock market
had a poor month and New Yorkers weathered the cold and high energy prices.
On the positive side, the job picture continues to hold steady, and there
are good economic forecasts for 2005.”
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: December 2004/January 2005
(Groups
listed in descending order by January’s Overall CCI
Rating) |
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
Dec. |
Jan. |
chng |
Dec. |
Jan. |
chng |
Dec. |
Jan. |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
97.3 |
100.9 |
+3.6 |
104.2 |
107.2 |
+3.0 |
92.9 |
96.8 |
+3.9 |
|
Higher
income |
90.8 |
92.0 |
+1.2 |
101.9 |
98.9 |
-3.0 |
83.7 |
87.6 |
+3.9 |
|
Men
|
86.4 |
90.7 |
+4.3 |
95.9 |
97.4 |
+1.5 |
80.3 |
86.4 |
+6.1 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
87.0 |
88.6 |
+1.6 |
95.1 |
94.3 |
-0.8 |
81.7 |
84.9 |
+3.2 |
|
Metro
NYC |
85.6 |
88.0 |
+2.4 |
91.7 |
92.8 |
+1.1 |
81.7 |
84.9 |
+3.2 |
|
New
York State
|
84.2 |
85.5 |
+1.3 |
92.8 |
93.2 |
+0.4 |
78.6 |
80.5 |
+1.9 |
|
Women
|
82.2 |
80.6 |
-1.6 |
90.6 |
89.0 |
-1.6 |
76.9 |
75.2 |
-1.7 |
|
Age
55+ |
79.4 |
80.2 |
+0.8 |
89.8 |
90.6 |
+0.8 |
72.7 |
73.5 |
+0.8 |
|
Upstate
NY |
81.6 |
80.0 |
-1.6 |
95.1 |
93.2 |
-1.9 |
73.0 |
71.5 |
-1.5 |
|
Democrats
|
78.4 |
79.7 |
+1.3 |
89.4 |
90.6 |
+1.2 |
71.3 |
72.7 |
+1.4 |
|
Lower
income |
74.7 |
78.5 |
+3.8 |
82.6 |
86.4 |
+3.8 |
69.6 |
73.5 |
+3.9 |
|
|
Overall Jan. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 100.9 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
78.5
(Lower
income)
Only
drops: (Women
(-1.6); Upstate (-1.6) |
Current Jan. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 107.2 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
86.4
(Lower
income) |
Future Jan. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 96.8 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
71.5
(Upstate
NY) Greatest
rise: +6.1 (Men) |
||||||
The
SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in January 2005 by random
telephone calls to 622 New York State residents over the age of 18.
It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.
For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom,
Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at
518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and
frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.