For Immediate Release:  Wednesday, February 2, 2005

 

New York State Consumer Confidence up 1.3 pts to 85.5

NYC Up, Upstate Down

Republicans Break the 100 Barrier

Upstate’s Future Confidence still nearly 22 pts below Current Confidence

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Microsoft Excel sheet 1, 2

Loudonville, NY – New York State’s overall consumer confidence rose 1.3 points in January, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). At 85.5, New York State’s overall confidence is 10.3 points below the nation.* 

January 2005

Consumer Confidence:

The

Nation

New York

State

diff.

pts

 

New York

State

Metro New York City

Upstate

NY

Overall

95.8 (-1.3)

85.5 (+1.3)

10.3

85.5 (+1.3)

88.0 (+2.4)

80.0 (-1.6)

Current

110.4 (+3.7)

93.2 (+0.4)

17.2

93.2 (+0.4)

92.8 (+1.1)

93.2 (-1.9)

Future

86.4 (-4.5)

80.5 (+1.9)

5.9

80.5 (+1.9)

84.9 (+3.2)

71.5 (-1.5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buying plans are up for cars and trucks, 2.6 points to 15.6%; for furniture, 0.6 of a point to 22.0%; and for homes, 0.1 of a point to 6.4%. Buying plans are down for computers, -2.9 points to 12.1%; and for major home improvements, 1.5 points to 17.5%.

 

“After three lean years, Consumer Confidence in New York State started a recovery in 2004 that is continuing into early 2005,” said Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director.  “This month’s increase is somewhat surprising, since the stock market had a poor month and New Yorkers weathered the cold and high energy prices.  On the positive side, the job picture continues to hold steady, and there are good economic forecasts for 2005.”

 

Each month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.

 

Consumer Confidence in New York State: December 2004/January 2005

(Groups listed in descending order by January’s Overall CCI Rating)

 

Overall

Current

Future

 

Dec.

Jan.

chng

Dec.

Jan.

chng

Dec.

Jan.

chng

Republicans

97.3

100.9

+3.6

104.2

107.2

+3.0

92.9

96.8

+3.9

Higher income

90.8

92.0

+1.2

101.9

98.9

-3.0

83.7

87.6

+3.9

Men

86.4

90.7

+4.3

95.9

97.4

+1.5

80.3

86.4

+6.1

Under Age 55

87.0

88.6

+1.6

95.1

94.3

-0.8

81.7

84.9

+3.2

Metro NYC

85.6

88.0

+2.4

91.7

92.8

+1.1

81.7

84.9

+3.2

New York State

84.2

85.5

+1.3

92.8

93.2

+0.4

78.6

80.5

+1.9

Women

82.2

80.6

-1.6

90.6

89.0

-1.6

76.9

75.2

-1.7

Age 55+

79.4

80.2

+0.8

89.8

90.6

+0.8

72.7

73.5

+0.8

Upstate NY

81.6

80.0

-1.6

95.1

93.2

-1.9

73.0

71.5

-1.5

Democrats

78.4

79.7

+1.3

89.4

90.6

+1.2

71.3

72.7

+1.4

Lower income

74.7

78.5

+3.8

82.6

86.4

+3.8

69.6

73.5

+3.9

 

Overall Jan. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI:  100.9

(Republicans)               

Lowest CCI:  78.5

(Lower income)                    

Only drops: 

(Women (-1.6); Upstate (-1.6)

Current Jan. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 107.2

(Republicans)                 

Lowest CCI: 86.4

(Lower income)

 

Future Jan. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 96.8

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI: 71.5

(Upstate NY)

Greatest rise: +6.1

(Men)

 

The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in January 2005 by random telephone calls to 622 New York State residents over the age of 18.  It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.  For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.  *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.