Siena Research Institute

Siena College, Loudonville, NY

www.siena.edu/sri

For Immediate Release: Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Contact: Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom at 727-939-3774 or lonnstrom@siena.edu

PDF version (with crosstabs 1, 2):

Fourth Quarter Consumer Confidence in New York State:

New York City remains #1, Albany 2nd

Confidence up everywhere except Buffalo, which falls to last

Buying Plans Mixed

Loudonville, NY – The New York City area continued to lead the state in consumer confidence in the fourth quarter of 2005, according to the latest Quarterly Consumer Confidence survey released today by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). The Buffalo area had the lowest consumer confidence of the six regions measured by SRI.

Overall confidence is up:

1.7 points in NYC to 81.6 (#1)

2.0 points in Albany to 76.8 (#2)

2.1 points in Syracuse to 73.1 (#3)

2.2 points in Binghamton to 70.5 (#4)

1.9 points in Rochester to 70.2 (#5)

Current confidence is up:

4.2 points in Syracuse to 85.3 (#2)

0.8 points in Albany to 84.5 (#3)

0.3 points in Binghamton to 82.2 (#4)

1.9 points in Rochester to 80.3 (#5)

Future confidence is up:

3.9 points in NYC to 78.8 (#1)

2.7 points in Albany to 71.8 (#2)

0.7 points in Syracuse to 65.2 (#3)

1.9 points in Rochester at 63.7 (#4)

3.4 points in Binghamton to 63.0 (#5)

Overall confidence is down:

5.2 points in Buffalo to 63.4 (#6)

Current confidence is down:

9.4 points in Buffalo to 77.7 (#6)

1.5 points in NYC to 86.0 (#1)

Future confidence is down:

2.4 points in Buffalo to 54.3 (#6)

“As we begin the new year, future confidence in each region is lower then current confidence,” notes Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director. “If we compare fourth quarter 2005 with fourth quarter 2004, we see overall confidence is now lower everywhere except in New York City. It’s clear that the consumer is still concerned about high energy prices, particularly since the first wave of heating bills is coming in.”

The “regions” looked at in SRI’s quarterly consumer confidence index report are “metropolitan statistical areas” (MSA’s). An MSA is a core urbanized area of 50,000 or more people plus adjacent counties with strong social or economic ties, as measured by commuting patterns. In this report, an MSA is referred to by the name of its principal city.

SRI has been following quarterly consumer confidence trends by MSA since the 4^th quarter of 2001 – the quarter following the 9/11 attacks that rocked New York City, the State, the nation and the world.

Comparing the 4^th quarter of 2005 with the 4^th quarter of 2004, consumer confidence in the MSA for:

-Albany went down 7.8 points and moved down from #1 to #2

-Binghamton went down 4.9 points and remained #4

-Buffalo went down 8.2 points and remained #6

-NYC went up 2.3 points and moved up from #2 to #1

-Rochester went down 6.6 points and moved down from #3 to #5

-Syracuse went down 1.3 points but moved up from #5 to #3

The intent of the Consumer Confidence Index is to measure peoples’ willingness to spend, as opposed to their ability to spend. The six MSA’s studied - Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, New York City, Rochester, and Syracuse - are profiled in an attempt to provide regional measures of the state’s economic health.

The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence.

While Consumer Confidence is reported as an index number, the buying plans portion of the survey reflects the percentage of respondents who plan specific expenditures in the next six months. Buying plans for the third quarter of 2005 are mixed:

Buying Plans: 4^th Quarter 2005, by MSA

Albany

Binghamton

Buffalo

NYC

Rochester

Syracuse

Car/Truck

13.7%

(up .6 pt)

10.7%

(up 1.0 pts)

11.0%

(down 2.9 pts)

11.9%

(up 0.5 pts)

12.2%

(down 0.7 pts)

14.1%

(up 1.7 pts)

Computer

11.7%

(up 0.5 pt)

10.9%

(up 1.4 pt)

12.2%

(down 0.5 pts)

19.7%

(up 2.5 pts)

9.0%

(down 1.0 pt)

8.0%

(up 0.2 pt)

Furniture

21.0%

(up 5.5 pts)

17.7%

(up 4.8 pt)

16.6%

(down 0.2 pts)

23.1%

(down 2.6 pts)

14.4%

(up 0.3 pt)

20.6%

(up 4.8 pts)

Home

3.2%

(no change)

3.9%

(no change)

3.2%

(down .0.7 pts)

7.7%

(no change)

2.7%

(down 0.5 pt)

4.4%

(up 0.5 pt)

Maj. Home Improvement

23.7%

(up 3.1 pts)

21.1%

(up 4.6 pts)

19.3%

(up 0.8 pts)

18.0%

(up 2.5 pts)

18.3%

(down 1.4 pts)

21.4%

(down 1.2 pts)

( ) reflects change from previous quarter

The SRI survey was conducted by random telephone calls to adults over the age of 18. The New York City index is based on an average of SRI’s monthly consumer confidence surveys. Each of the other metro area indexes is based on over 400 respondents. For more information or comment, please contact SRI Director Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom at 727-939-3774. Survey Cross-tabs and frequencies for the consumer confidence of each metro area can be found on the Internet at: http://www.siena.edu/sri/results/2005/05_Dec_4QMSA.htm.