Siena Research Institute

Siena College , Loudonville , NY

www.siena.edu/sri

 

For Immediate Release:        Friday, May 6, 2005

For more information or comment, contact Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom at 518-783-2362 (office) or

518-456-6073 (home).

Word version, PDF version, Excel sheet 1, 2

 

NEW YORK STATE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HITS 18 MONTH LOW

Republicans fall 8.3 pts to 85.6  - their lowest since Sept. ’03 – but still NYS’s highest

All Buying Plans Up

 

Loudonville, NY – New York State’s overall consumer confidence fell 2.0 points in April, but all buying plans are up, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). At 77.3, New York State ’s overall confidence is the lowest it has been in a year and a half, and 10.4 points below the nation’s* consumer confidence of 87.7.

April 2005

Consumer Confidence:

The

Nation

New York

State

diff.

pts

 

New York

State

Metro New York City

Upstate

NY

Overall

   87.7 (-4.9)

 77.3 (-2.0)

10.4

 77.3 (-2.0)

 80.6 (-0.6)

 71.3 (-3.8)

Current

  104.4 (-3.6)

86.8 (-1.5)

17.6

86.8 (-1.5)

 86.8 (-0.8)

 87.5 (-2.3)

Future

   77.0 (-5.8)

 71.3 (-2.2)

5.7

 71.3 (-2.2)

 76.6 (-0.5)

 60.8 (-4.9)

 

Despite the drops in confidence, all buying plans are up: cars and trucks, 4.2 points to 16.6%; computers, 2.6 points to 17.2%; furniture, 3.6 points to 21.4%; homes, 1.0 point to 6.1%; and for major home improvements, 4.7 points  to 21.4%.

 

 “Strangely, consumer confidence is down but all buying plans are up,” said Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director.  “Two things are happening.  Buying plans were low in February and March due to large heating bills and climbing gasoline prices, but consumers are adjusting as the heating season ends.  Also, current confidence is more then 15 points higher then future confidence, so consumers are willing to start spending again.”

 

Each month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan ’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.

Consumer Confidence in New York State (index numbers): March/April 2005

(Groups listed in descending order by April’s Overall CCI Rating)

 

Overall

Current

Future

 

Mar.

Apr.

chng

Mar.

Apr.

chng

Mar.

Apr.

chng

Republicans

93.9

85.6

-8.3

106.8

98.9

-7.9

85.6

77.1

-8.5

Higher income

86.4

84.6

-1.8

98.5

97.4

-1.1

78.6

76.4

-2.2

Metro NYC

81.2

80.6

-0.6

87.5

86.8

-0.8

77.1

76.6

-0.5

Men

79.6

80.5

+0.9

90.6

88.7

-1.9

72.5

75.2

+2.7

Under Age 55

83.7

80.2

-3.5

93.2

88.7

-4.5

77.6

74.7

-2.9

New York State

79.3

77.3

-2.0

88.3

86.8

-1.5

73.5

71.3

-2.2

Women

78.7

74.5

-4.2

86.0

85.6

-0.4

74.0

67.4

-6.6

Democrats

72.5

74.5

+2.0

80.3

83.0

+2.7

67.4

69.1

+1.7

Age 55+

72.2

73.5

+1.3

80.3

84.9

+4.6

66.9

66.2

-0.7

Upstate NY

75.1

71.3

-3.8

89.8

87.5

-2.3

65.7

60.8

-4.9

Lower income

72.8

70.4

-2.4

78.1

76.6

-1.5

69.3

66.4

-2.9

 

Overall Apr. CCI Stats:

Highest:  85.6 (Republicans)               

Lowest:  70.4 (lower income)                    

Greatest chg: -8.3 (Republicans)

Current Apr. CCI Stats:

Highest: 98.9 (Republicans)                   

Lowest:  76.6 (lower income)

Greatest chg:-7.9 (Republicans)

Future Apr. CCI Stats:

Highest: 77.1 (Republicans)

Lowest: 60.8 (Upstate NY)

Greatest chg:-8.5(Repub’cans)

 

The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in April 2005 by random telephone calls to 621 New York State residents over the age of 18.  As consumer confidence is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply. Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to a specific question, do have a margin of error of + 3.9 points.  For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.  *National data compiled by the University of Michigan .