Siena Research Institute

Siena College, Loudonville, NY

www.siena.edu/sri

 

For Immediate Release:                        Monday, April 4, 2005

Contact:                                               Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom at 518-783-2362 (o) or 518-456-6073 (h)

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crosstabs - buying plans, quarterly trends            

 

First Quarter Consumer Confidence Mixed for Major NYS Regions:

Only Albany, Binghamton, NYC experience rise in overall confidence

Binghamton edges its way up; Buffalo Area loses the most, remains last

The Albany Region Continues to Lead in Current, Future, Overall Confidence

 

Loudonville, NY –  Consumer confidence fell in three of six regions measured in New York State in the first quarter, according to the latest Quarterly Consumer Confidence survey released today by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI).  At 85.6, the Albany region continues to have the highest consumer confidence in New York State; at 66.2, the Buffalo region has the lowest.

 

Overall confidence is up:

1.0 point in Albany to 85.6 (#1)

2.5 points in NYC to 81.8 (#2)

2.8 points in Binghamton to 78.2 (#3)

 

Current confidence is up:

0.4 of a point in Albany to 94.0 (#1)

5.3 points in NYC to 88.3 (#2)

4.5 points in Rochester to 87.9 (#3)

3.0 points in Syracuse to 87.9 (#3)

3.4 points in Binghamton to 85.6 (#5)

Future confidence is up:

1.5 points in Albany to 80.3 (#1)

0.7 points in NYC to 77.6 (#2)

2.5 points in Binghamton to 73.5 (#3)

 

 

Overall confidence is down:

1.4 points in Rochester to75.4 (#4)

0.6 of a point in Syracuse to 73.8 (#5)

5.4 points in Buffalo to 66.2  (#6)

Current confidence is down:

3.8     points in Buffalo to 81.1 (#6)

 

Future confidence is down:

5.1 points in Rochester at 67.4 (#4)

2.9 points in Syracuse to 64.7 (#5)

6.3 points in Buffalo to 56.7 (#6)

 

“Albany continues to be an oasis in the upstate desert.,” notes Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director. “As the state capital, and the home to numerous colleges, universities and health care institutions, Albany enjoys a relatively stable economy. Across the State, the real concern is that future confidence is anywhere from 10 points to 24 points below current confidence.  Western New York is looking particularly dismal.”

 

     The “regions” looked at in SRI’s quarterly consumer confidence index report are “metropolitan statistical areas” (MSA’s). An MSA is a core urbanized area of 50,000 or more people plus adjacent counties with strong social or economic ties, as measured by commuting patterns.  In this report, an MSA is referred to by the name of its principal city.

 

   SRI has been following quarterly consumer confidence trends by MSA since the 4th quarter of 2001 – the quarter following the 9/11 attacks that rocked New York City, the State, the nation and the world.

 

   Comparing the 1st quarter of 2005 with the 1st quarter of 2004, consumer confidence in the MSA for:

-Albany went down 3.9 points and remained #1

-Binghamton went down 0.3 of a point and moved up from #4 to #3

-NYC went down 0.1 of a point and remained #2

-Rochester went down 5.6 points and moved down from  #3 to #4

-Syracuse went down 4.3 points and remained #5

-Buffalo went down 10.7 of a point and remained #6

 

 

Siena Research Institute

1st Quarter 2005 Consumer Confidence, by MSA

Monday, April 4, 2005

Page 2 of 2

 

The intent of the Consumer Confidence Index is to measure peoples’ willingness to spend, as opposed to their ability to spend. The six MSA’s studied - Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, New York City, Rochester, and Syracuse - are profiled in an attempt to provide regional measures of the state’s economic health.

 

The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence.

 

 

While Consumer Confidence is reported as an index number, the buying plans portion of the survey reflects the percentage of respondents who plan specific expenditures in the next six months. Buying plans for the fourth quarter of 2004 varied greatly from region to region:

 

Buying Plans: 1st Quarter 2005, by MSA

 

Albany

Binghamton

Buffalo

NYC

Rochester

Syracuse

Car/Truck

14.4%

(down 1.4 pts)

15.2%

(up 1.1 pts)

13.2%

(down 0.5 pts)

11.9%

(down 1.8 pts)

12.7%

(up 1.0 pts)

12.4%

(down 1.7 pts)

Computer

 

10.7%

(down 2.7 pts)

8.7%

(up 0.4 pts)

8.0%

(down 2.2 pts)

16.0%

(down 1.1 pt)

9.0%

(down 4.1 pts)

9.5%

(down 0.2 pts)

Furniture

 

20.2%

(no change)

16.4%

(down 0.9 pts)

15.9%

(up 2.7 pts)

22.0%

(down 1.9 pt)

15.1%

(down 1.6 pts)

16.6%

(down 1.2 pts)

Home

 

3.6%

(down 1.0 pt)

2.4%

(down 0.8 pts)

3.2 %

(up 1.0 pts)

6.8%

(up 1.0 pts)

3.2%

(up 0.3 pts)

2.9%

(up 0.5 pts)

Maj. Home Improvement

22.6%

(down 0.8 pts)

16.9%

(down 1.6 pts)

18.5%

(up 5.3 pts)

15.0%

(down 1.8 pts)

21.0%

(up 3.0 pts)

18.3%

(down 1.2 pts)

( ) reflects change from previous quarter

 

The SRI survey was conducted by random telephone calls to adults over the age of 18.  The New York City index is based on an average of SRI’s monthly consumer confidence surveys.   Each of the other metro area indexes is based on over 400 respondents. For more information or comment, please contact SRI Director Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom at 518-783-2362 (o) or 518-456-6073 (h).   Survey Cross-tabs and frequencies for the consumer confidence of each metro area can be found on the Internet at: www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.  

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