SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY

 

For Immediate Release:  Monday, January 17, 2005

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New York State Consumer Confidence up 5.7 pts to 84.2

Upstate leads in Current Confidence; Metro NYC leads in Overall, Future Confidence Metro NYC jumps up big; Upstate’s Future Confidence 22 pts below Current Confidence

 

Loudonville, NY – New York State consumer confidence went up 5.7 points overall in December, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). At 84.2, New York State’s overall confidence is 12.9 points below the nation.* 

December 2004

Consumer Confidence:

The

Nation

New York

State

diff.

pts

 

New York

State

Metro New York City

Upstate

NY

Overall

97.1 (+4.3)

84.2 (+5.7)

12.9

84.2 (+5.7)

85.6 (+8.3)

 81.6 (+1.3)

Current

106.7 (+2.0)

92.8 (+8.7)

13.9

92.8 (+8.7)

 91.7 (+9.8)

 95.1 (+7.2)

Future

90.9 (+5.7)

78.6 (+3.7)

12.3

78.6 (+3.7)

 81.7 (+7.3)

 73.0 (-2.4)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buying plans for are up for computers, 2.4 points to 15.0%; homes, 0.8 of a point to 6.3%; and for major home improvements, 1.9 points to 19.0%. Buying plans are down for cars and trucks, 2.3 points to 13.0%; and for furniture, 0.5 of a point to 21.4%.

 

“December was a good month for New York State,” says Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director.  “Energy prices were down, weather was mild, and the stock market did well.  As a result, overall consumer confidence shot up almost six points, and current confidence reached its highest level since last July.  On the other hand, future confidence is running more than 14 points below current confidence, suggesting that although consumers are feeling good about today, they are concerned about tomorrow.”

 

Each month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.

 

Consumer Confidence in New York State: November/December 2004

(Groups listed in descending order by December’s Overall CCI Rating)

 

Overall

Current

Future

 

Nov.

Dec.

chng

Nov.

Dec.

chng

Nov.

Dec.

chng

Republicans

93.2

97.3

4.1

98.5

104.2

5.7

89.8

92.9

3.1

Higher income

84.6

90.8

6.2

93.2

101.9

8.7

79.1

83.7

4.6

Under Age 55

81.2

87.0

5.8

86.4

95.1

8.7

77.8

81.7

3.9

Men

80.6

86.4

5.8

84.9

95.9

11.0

77.8

80.3

2.5

Metro NYC

77.3

85.6

8.3

81.9

91.7

9.8

74.4

81.7

7.3

New York State

78.5

84.2

5.7

84.1

92.8

8.7

74.9

78.6

3.7

Women

76.6

82.2

5.6

83.4

90.6

7.2

72.3

76.9

4.6

Upstate NY

80.3

81.6

1.3

87.9

95.1

7.2

75.4

73.0

-2.4

Age 55+

74.4

79.4

5.0

80.7

89.8

9.1

70.3

72.7

2.4

Democrats

70.1

78.4

8.3

76.2

89.4

13.2

66.2

71.3

5.1

Lower income

70.5

74.7

4.2

71.3

82.6

11.3

70.1

69.6

-0.5

 

Overall Dec. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI:  97.3

(Republicans)               

Lowest CCI:  74.7

(Lower income)                    

Greatest rise: 8.3 

(Metro NYC, Democrats)

Current Dec. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 104.2

(Republicans)                 

Lowest CCI: 82.6

(Lower income)

Greatest rise: 13.2

(Democrats) 

Future Dec. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 92.9

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI: 69.6

(Lower income)

Greatest rise: 7.3

(Metro NYC)

 

The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in December 2004 by random telephone calls to 621 New York State residents over the age of 18.  It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.  For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 727-939-3774. Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.  *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.