SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE,
NY
For Immediate Release: Monday, January 17, 2005
Microsoft Word Version
Loudonville,
NY – New
York State consumer confidence went up 5.7 points overall in December,
according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI).
At 84.2, New York State’s overall confidence is 12.9 points below the
nation.*
|
December 2004 Consumer Confidence: |
The Nation |
New York State |
diff. pts |
|
New York State
|
Metro
New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
97.1 (+4.3) |
84.2 (+5.7) |
12.9 |
84.2 (+5.7) |
85.6 (+8.3) |
81.6 (+1.3) |
|
|
Current |
106.7 (+2.0) |
92.8 (+8.7) |
13.9 |
92.8 (+8.7) |
91.7 (+9.8) |
95.1 (+7.2) |
|
|
Future |
90.9 (+5.7) |
78.6 (+3.7) |
12.3 |
78.6 (+3.7) |
81.7 (+7.3) |
73.0 (-2.4) |
Buying plans for are up for computers, 2.4 points to 15.0%; homes, 0.8 of a point to 6.3%; and for major home improvements, 1.9 points to 19.0%. Buying plans are down for cars and trucks, 2.3 points to 13.0%; and for furniture, 0.5 of a point to 21.4%.
“December was a good month for New York State,” says
Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and
SRI Director. “Energy prices were down,
weather was mild, and the stock market did well. As a result, overall consumer confidence shot up almost
six points, and current confidence reached its highest level since last
July. On the other hand, future
confidence is running more than 14 points below current confidence,
suggesting that although consumers are feeling good about today, they are
concerned about tomorrow.”
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: November/December 2004
(Groups listed in descending
order by December’s Overall CCI Rating) |
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
Nov. |
Dec. |
chng |
Nov. |
Dec. |
chng |
Nov. |
Dec. |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
93.2 |
97.3 |
4.1 |
98.5 |
104.2 |
5.7 |
89.8 |
92.9 |
3.1 |
|
Higher
income |
84.6 |
90.8 |
6.2 |
93.2 |
101.9 |
8.7 |
79.1 |
83.7 |
4.6 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
81.2 |
87.0 |
5.8 |
86.4 |
95.1 |
8.7 |
77.8 |
81.7 |
3.9 |
|
Men
|
80.6 |
86.4 |
5.8 |
84.9 |
95.9 |
11.0 |
77.8 |
80.3 |
2.5 |
|
Metro
NYC |
77.3 |
85.6 |
8.3 |
81.9 |
91.7 |
9.8 |
74.4 |
81.7 |
7.3 |
|
New
York State
|
78.5 |
84.2 |
5.7 |
84.1 |
92.8 |
8.7 |
74.9 |
78.6 |
3.7 |
|
Women
|
76.6 |
82.2 |
5.6 |
83.4 |
90.6 |
7.2 |
72.3 |
76.9 |
4.6 |
|
Upstate
NY |
80.3 |
81.6 |
1.3 |
87.9 |
95.1 |
7.2 |
75.4 |
73.0 |
-2.4 |
|
Age
55+ |
74.4 |
79.4 |
5.0 |
80.7 |
89.8 |
9.1 |
70.3 |
72.7 |
2.4 |
|
Democrats
|
70.1 |
78.4 |
8.3 |
76.2 |
89.4 |
13.2 |
66.2 |
71.3 |
5.1 |
|
Lower
income |
70.5 |
74.7 |
4.2 |
71.3 |
82.6 |
11.3 |
70.1 |
69.6 |
-0.5 |
|
|
Overall Dec. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 97.3 (Republicans) Lowest CCI: 74.7
(Lower
income) Greatest
rise: 8.3 (Metro
NYC, Democrats) |
Current Dec. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 104.2 (Republicans) Lowest CCI: 82.6
(Lower
income) Greatest
rise: 13.2 (Democrats) |
Future Dec. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 92.9 (Republicans) Lowest CCI: 69.6
(Lower
income) Greatest
rise: 7.3 (Metro
NYC) |
||||||
The
SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in December 2004 by random
telephone calls to 621 New York State residents over the age of 18. It has a margin of error of + 3.9
points. For more information or
comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance
and statistics and SRI Director, at 727-939-3774. Survey cross-tabulations and
frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of
Michigan.