For
Immediate Release: Thursday, January 6, 2005
For
more information, contact Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom at 727-939-3774.
Fourth
Quarter Consumer Confidence Dips for Major NYS Regions:
Shaky
start to the quarter dampens consumer confidence in every region
The
Albany Region Continues to Lead in Current, Future, Overall Confidence
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Loudonville, NY –
Consumer confidence fell precipitously in several regions of
New York State in the fourth quarter, according to the latest Quarterly
Consumer Confidence survey released today by the Siena (College) Research
Institute (SRI).
At 84.6, the Albany region continues to have the highest consumer
confidence in New York State; at 71.6, the Buffalo region has the lowest.
|
Overall confidence is up:
- nowhere
|
Current confidence is up:
- nowhere
|
Future confidence is up:
-
nowhere
|
|
Overall confidence is down:
3.3
points in Albany to 84.6 (#1)
2.6
points in NYC to 79.3 (#2)
2.8
points in Rochester to76.8 (#3)
4.3
points in Binghamton to 75.4 (#4)
3.8
points in Syracuse to 74.4 (#5)
1.6
points in Buffalo to 71.6 (#6)
|
Current confidence is down:
4.1
points in Albany to 93.6 (#1)
1.1
points in Buffalo to 84.9 (#2)
7.5
points in Syracuse to 84.9 (#2)
4.1
points in Rochester to 83.4 (#4)
1.1
points in NYC to 83.0 (#5)
6.5
points in Binghamton to 82.2 (#6)
|
Future confidence is down:
2.7
points in Albany to 78.8 (#1)
3.6
points in NYC to 76.9 (#2)
1.9
points in Rochester at 72.5 (#3)
3.0
points in Binghamton to 71.0 (#4)
1.5
points in Syracuse to 67.6 (#5)
2.0
points in Buffalo to 63.0 (#6)
|
“The last quarter of 2004 was a very volatile one for
consumer confidence,” notes Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of
finance and statistics and SRI Director. “In October and November, we saw high
energy prices, low job creation, rising interest rates, a slow start to holiday
buying, and a drifting stock market. In December, the economy bounced back:
energy prices came down, the stock market went up, economic forecasts were
positive, and holiday sales closed strong. We ended on a good note, but the sour
start put a damper on the whole composition.”
|
The “regions” looked at in SRI’s quarterly consumer
confidence index report are “metropolitan statistical areas” (MSA’s).
An MSA is a core urbanized area of 50,000 or more people plus adjacent
counties with strong social or economic ties, as measured by commuting
patterns. In this report, an
MSA is referred to by the name of its principal city.
SRI has been following quarterly consumer confidence trends by MSA
since the 4th quarter of 2001 – the quarter following the
9/11 attacks that rocked New York City, the State, the nation and the
world.
Comparing
the 4th quarter of 2004 with the 4th quarter of
2003, consumer confidence in the MSA for:
-Albany
went down 3.0 points and remained #1
-NYC
stayed the same and remained #2
-Rochester
went down 1.3 points and remained #3
-Binghamton
went up 3.7 points and moved up from #5 to #4
-Syracuse
went up
0.5 of a point and moved down from #4 to #5
-Buffalo
went up 0.5 of a point and remained #6
|
|
The intent of the Consumer
Confidence Index is to measure peoples’ willingness to spend, as
opposed to their ability to spend. The six MSA’s studied - Albany,
Binghamton, Buffalo, New York City, Rochester, and Syracuse - are profiled in an
attempt to provide regional measures of the state’s economic health.
The SRI survey measures current
and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall
consumer confidence.
While Consumer Confidence is reported as an index number,
the buying plans portion of the survey reflects the percentage of
respondents who plan specific expenditures in the next six months. Buying plans
for the fourth quarter of 2004 varied greatly from region to region:
Buying Plans: 4th Quarter
2004, by MSA
|
|
|
Albany
|
Binghamton
|
Buffalo
|
NYC
|
Rochester
|
Syracuse
|
Car/Truck
|
15.8%
(down
0.9 pts)
|
14.1%
(up
3.2 pts)
|
13.7%
(down
1.4 pts)
|
13.7%
(up
1.9 pts)
|
11.7%
(down
2.8 pts)
|
14.1%
(up
0.3 pts)
|
|
Computer
|
13.4%
(up
1.8 pts)
|
8.3%
(down
0.2 pts)
|
10.2%
(down
2.7 pts)
|
17.1%
(up
0.1 pt)
|
13.1%
(up
1.7 pts)
|
9.7%
(down
2.0 pts)
|
|
Furniture
|
20.2%
(up
0.3 pts)
|
17.3%
(up
4.0 pts)
|
13.2%
(down
1.9 pts)
|
23.9%
(up
0.2 pt)
|
16.7%
(up
1.7 pts)
|
17.8%
(up
2.8 pts)
|
|
Home
|
4.6%
(no
change)
|
3.2%
(down
0.9 pts)
|
2.2
%
(down
4.9 pts)
|
5.8%
(down
1.1 pts)
|
2.9%
(down
0.5 pts)
|
2.4%
(down
1.7 pts)
|
|
Maj.
Home Improvement
|
23.4%
(up
2.6 pts)
|
18.5%
(up
0.3 pts)
|
13.2%
(up
3.1 pts)
|
16.8%
(up
2.1 pts)
|
18.0%
(up
1.3 pts)
|
19.5%
(down
3.1 pts)
|
( ) reflects change from previous quarter
The
SRI survey was conducted by random telephone calls to adults over the age of 18.
The New York City index is based on an average of SRI’s monthly
consumer confidence surveys. Each
of the other metro area indexes is based on over 400 respondents. For more
information or comment, please contact SRI Director Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom at 727-939-3774. Survey Cross-tabs and frequencies for the consumer
confidence of each metro area can be found on the Internet at:
www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.