For
Immediate Release: Wednesday,
October 13, 2004
Microsoft Word Version
Loudonville, NY – New York State consumer confidence went down 1.8
points overall in September, the result of a 7.1 point drop in Upstate
overall confidence, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research
Institute (SRI). At 78.4 overall confidence, New York State is 15.8
points below the nation*; New York State’s 84.9 current confidence is
18.8 points below the nation.
|
September
2004 Consumer
Confidence: |
The Nation |
New York State |
diff. pts |
|
New York State
|
Metro
New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
94.2
(-1.7) |
78.4
(-1.8) |
15.8 |
78.4
(-1.8) |
82.1
(+1.5) |
71.9
(-7.1) |
|
|
Current |
103.7
(-4.2) |
84.9
no chng |
18.8 |
84.9
no chng |
86.0
(+3.8) |
82.6
(-7.2) |
|
|
Future |
88.0
(-0.2) |
74.2
(-2.9) |
13.8 |
74.2
(-2.9) |
79.6
no chng |
65.0
(-7.0) |
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: August/September 2004
(Groups
listed in descending order by September’s Overall CCI
Rating) |
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
Aug. |
Sept. |
chng |
Aug. |
Sept. |
chng |
Aug. |
Sept. |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
96.9 |
92.4 |
-4.5 |
102.7 |
99.6 |
-3.1 |
93.2 |
87.8 |
-5.4 |
|
Higher
income |
84.4 |
84.2 |
-0.2 |
92.1 |
94.0 |
+1.9 |
79.6 |
77.8 |
-1.8 |
|
Men
|
83.0 |
82.8 |
-0.2 |
85.6 |
89.8 |
+4.2 |
81.3 |
78.3 |
-3.0 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
82.1 |
82.5 |
+0.4 |
86.4 |
87.9 |
+1.5 |
79.3 |
79.1 |
-0.2 |
|
Metro
NYC |
80.6 |
82.1 |
+1.5 |
82.2 |
86.0 |
+3.8 |
79.6 |
79.6 |
no
chng |
|
New
York State
|
80.2 |
78.4 |
-1.8 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
no
chng |
77.1 |
74.2 |
-2.9 |
|
Women
|
77.0 |
74.1 |
-2.9 |
84.1 |
80.0 |
-4.1 |
72.5 |
70.3 |
-2.2 |
|
Lower
income |
74.8 |
72.8 |
-2.0 |
75.0 |
75.0 |
no
chng |
74.7 |
71.3 |
-3.4 |
|
Upstate
NY |
79.0 |
71.9 |
-7.1 |
89.8 |
82.6 |
-7.2 |
72.0 |
65.0 |
-7.0 |
|
Age
55+ |
76.3 |
71.7 |
-4.6 |
82.2 |
79.6 |
-2.6 |
72.5 |
66.7 |
-5.8 |
|
Democrats
|
69.5 |
69.9 |
+0.4 |
72.8 |
78.1 |
+5.3 |
67.4 |
64.7 |
-2.7 |
|
|
Overall Sept. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 92.4 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
69.9
(Democrats)
Greatest
drop: -7.1 (Upstate
NY) |
Current Sept. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 99.6 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
75.0
(Lower
income) Greatest
drop: -7.2 (Upstate
NY) |
Future Sept. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 87.8 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
64.7
(Democrats) Greatest
drop: -7.0 (Upstate
NY) |
||||||
Buying plans for cars and trucks are up 1.4 points to 13.2%; for computers, up 1.0 point to 15.1%; and for furniture, up 0.8 of a point to 21.9%. Buying plans for homes are down 2.6 points to 5.1%; and for major home improvements, down 1.2 points to 18.3%.
“Upstate consumer confidence is dragging down the entire state,” says Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “Future confidence upstate is particularly dismal with an index of 65, which is 23 points below the nation and nearly 15 points lower then New York City. Heading into the winter heating season with record high energy prices is clearly taking its toll.”
The
SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in September 2004 by random
telephone calls to 623 New York State residents over the age of 18.
It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.
For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom,
Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at
518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and
frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.