For
Immediate Release: Monday, November
8, 2004
Microsoft Word Version
Loudonville, NY – New York State consumer confidence went up 3.1
points overall in October, according to the latest poll by the Siena
(College) Research Institute (SRI). At 81.5 overall confidence, New York
State is 10.2 points below the nation*; New York State’s 84.5 current
confidence is 19.5 points below the nation.
|
October
2004 Consumer
Confidence: |
The Nation |
New York State |
diff. pts |
|
New York State
|
Metro
New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
91.7
(-2.5) |
81.5
(+3.1) |
10.2 |
81.5
(+3.1) |
82.2
(+0.1) |
79.6
(+7.7) |
|
|
Current |
104.0
(+0.3) |
84.5
(-0.4) |
19.5 |
84.5
(-0.4) |
82.6
(-3.4) |
87.9
(+5.3) |
|
|
Future |
83.8
(-4.2) |
79.6
(+5.4) |
4.2 |
79.6
(+5.4) |
82.0
(+2.4) |
74.2
(+9.2) |
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: September/October 2004
(Groups
listed in descending order by October’s Overall CCI
Rating) |
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
Sept. |
Oct. |
chng |
Sept. |
Oct. |
chng |
Sept. |
Oct. |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
92.4 |
97.0 |
+4.6 |
99.6 |
101.5 |
+1.9 |
87.8 |
94.1 |
+6.3 |
|
Higher
income |
84.2 |
88.3 |
+4.1 |
94.0 |
95.9 |
+1.9 |
77.8 |
83.4 |
+5.6 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
82.5 |
84.0 |
+1.5 |
87.9 |
87.1 |
-0.8 |
79.1 |
82.0 |
+2.9 |
|
Men
|
82.8 |
83.4 |
+0.6 |
89.8 |
88.7 |
-1.1 |
78.3 |
80.0 |
+1.7 |
|
Metro
NYC |
82.1 |
82.2 |
+0.1 |
86.0 |
82.6 |
-3.4 |
79.6 |
82.0 |
+2.4 |
|
New
York State
|
78.4 |
81.5 |
+3.1 |
84.9 |
84.5 |
-0.4 |
74.2 |
79.6 |
+5.4 |
|
Upstate
NY |
71.9 |
79.6 |
+7.7 |
82.6 |
87.9 |
+5.3 |
65.0 |
74.2 |
+9.2 |
|
Women
|
74.1 |
79.4 |
+5.3 |
80.0 |
80.3 |
+0.3 |
70.3 |
78.8 |
+8.5 |
|
Age
55+ |
71.7 |
77.3 |
+5.6 |
79.6 |
80.3 |
+0.7 |
66.7 |
75.4 |
+8.7 |
|
Lower
income |
72.8 |
73.5 |
+0.7 |
75.0 |
72.0 |
-3.0 |
71.3 |
74.4 |
+3.1 |
|
Democrats
|
69.9 |
71.7 |
+1.8 |
78.1 |
75.4 |
-2.7 |
64.7 |
69.3 |
+4.6 |
|
|
Overall Oct. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 97.0 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
71.7
(Democrats)
Greatest
rise: 7.7 (Upstate
NY) |
Current Oct. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 101.5 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
72.0
(Lower
income) Greatest
rise: 5.3 (Upstate
NY) |
Future Oct. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 94.1 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
69.3
(Democrats) Greatest
rise: 9.2 (Upstate
NY) |
||||||
Buying plans for computers are up 1.1 points to 16.2%; for furniture, up 0.2 of a point to 22.1%; and for major home improvements, up 1.6 points to 19.9%. Buying plans for cars and trucks are down 0.4 of a point to 12.8%; and for homes, down 0.6 of a point to 4.5%.
“In September, it was upstate confidence which dragged down the state,” says Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “In October, upstate bounced back, particularly future confidence, which was up over 9 points. As a result, New York State was up over 3 points, while the nation dropped almost 3. Nonetheless, New York State is still 10 points below the nation.”
The
SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in October 2004 by random
telephone calls to 624 New York State residents over the age of 18.
It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.
For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom,
Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at
518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and
frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.