For Immediate Release:  Monday, November 8, 2004

 

New York State Consumer Confidence up 3.1 pts to 81.5

Upstate Confidence reverses, Jumps 7.7 Points to 79.6

Metro NYC Down in Current Confidence, up in Future

Future Confidence Up In Every Demographic

 Microsoft Word Version

Microsoft Excel Sheet 1 , 2

Loudonville, NY – New York State consumer confidence went up 3.1 points overall in October, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). At 81.5 overall confidence, New York State is 10.2 points below the nation*; New York State’s 84.5 current confidence is 19.5 points below the nation.

 

October 2004

Consumer Confidence:

The

Nation

New York

State

diff.

pts

 

New York

State

Metro New York City

Upstate

NY

Overall

91.7 (-2.5)

81.5 (+3.1)

10.2

81.5 (+3.1)

82.2 (+0.1)

79.6 (+7.7)

Current

104.0 (+0.3)

84.5 (-0.4)

19.5

84.5 (-0.4)

82.6 (-3.4)

87.9 (+5.3)

Future

83.8 (-4.2)

79.6 (+5.4)

4.2

79.6 (+5.4)

82.0 (+2.4)

74.2 (+9.2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Each month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.

 

Consumer Confidence in New York State: September/October 2004

(Groups listed in descending order by October’s Overall CCI Rating)

 

Overall

Current

Future

 

Sept.

Oct.

chng

Sept.

Oct.

chng

Sept.

Oct.

chng

Republicans

92.4

97.0

+4.6

99.6

101.5

+1.9

87.8

94.1

+6.3

Higher income

84.2

88.3

+4.1

94.0

95.9

+1.9

77.8

83.4

+5.6

Under Age 55

82.5

84.0

+1.5

87.9

87.1

-0.8

79.1

82.0

+2.9

Men

82.8

83.4

+0.6

89.8

88.7

-1.1

78.3

80.0

+1.7

Metro NYC

82.1

82.2

+0.1

86.0

82.6

-3.4

79.6

82.0

+2.4

New York State

78.4

81.5

+3.1

84.9

84.5

-0.4

74.2

79.6

+5.4

Upstate NY

71.9

79.6

+7.7

82.6

87.9

+5.3

65.0

74.2

+9.2

Women

74.1

79.4

+5.3

80.0

80.3

+0.3

70.3

78.8

+8.5

Age 55+

71.7

77.3

+5.6

79.6

80.3

+0.7

66.7

75.4

+8.7

Lower income

72.8

73.5

+0.7

75.0

72.0

-3.0

71.3

74.4

+3.1

Democrats

69.9

71.7

+1.8

78.1

75.4

-2.7

64.7

69.3

+4.6

 

Overall Oct. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI:  97.0

(Republicans)               

Lowest CCI:  71.7

(Democrats)                    

Greatest rise: 7.7

(Upstate NY)

Current Oct. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 101.5

(Republicans)                 

Lowest CCI: 72.0

(Lower income)

Greatest rise: 5.3

(Upstate NY) 

Future Oct. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 94.1

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI: 69.3

(Democrats)

Greatest rise: 9.2

(Upstate NY)

 

Buying plans for computers are up 1.1 points to 16.2%; for furniture, up 0.2 of a point to 22.1%; and for major home improvements, up 1.6 points to 19.9%. Buying plans for cars and trucks are down 0.4 of a point to 12.8%; and for homes,  down 0.6 of a point to 4.5%.

 

“In September, it was upstate confidence which dragged down the state,” says Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director.  “In October, upstate bounced back, particularly future confidence, which was up over 9 points.  As a result, New York State was up over 3 points, while the nation dropped almost 3.  Nonetheless, New York State is still 10 points below the nation.”

 

The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in October 2004 by random telephone calls to 624 New York State residents over the age of 18.  It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.  For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.  *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.