SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY
For
Immediate Release: Wednesday, December
1, 2004
Microsoft Word Version
Buying plans (Excel) 1
Monthly Summary (PDF) 2
Loudonville, NY – New York State consumer confidence went down 3.0
points overall in November, according to the latest poll by the Siena
(College) Research Institute (SRI). At 78.5, New York State’s overall
confidence is 14.3 points below the nation*; New York State’s 84.1 current
confidence is 20.6 points below the nation.
|
November 2004 Consumer Confidence: |
The Nation |
New York State |
diff. pts |
|
New York State
|
Metro
New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
92.8 (+1.1) |
78.5 (-3.0) |
14.3 |
78.5 (-3.0) |
77.3 (-4.9) |
80.3 (+0.7) |
|
|
Current |
104.7 (+0.7) |
84.1 (-0.4) |
20.6 |
84.1 (-0.4) |
81.9 (-0.8) |
87.9 ( 0.0) |
|
|
Future |
85.2 (+1.4) |
74.9 (-4.7) |
10.3 |
74.9 (-4.7) |
74.4 (-7.5) |
75.4 (+1.2) |
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: October/November 2004
(Groups listed in descending
order by November’s Overall CCI Rating) |
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
Oct. |
Nov. |
chng |
Oct. |
Nov. |
chng |
Oct. |
Nov. |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
97.0 |
93.2 |
-3.8 |
101.5 |
98.5 |
-3.0 |
94.1 |
89.8 |
-4.3 |
|
Higher
income |
88.3 |
84.6 |
-3.7 |
95.9 |
93.2 |
-2.7 |
83.4 |
79.1 |
-4.3 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
84.0 |
81.2 |
-2.8 |
87.1 |
86.4 |
-2.8 |
82.0 |
77.8 |
-4.2 |
|
Men
|
83.4 |
80.6 |
-2.8 |
88.7 |
84.9 |
-3.8 |
80.0 |
77.8 |
-2.2 |
|
Upstate
NY |
79.6 |
80.3 |
+0.7 |
87.9 |
87.9 |
no chg |
74.2 |
75.4 |
+0.2 |
|
New
York State
|
81.5 |
78.5 |
-3.0 |
84.5 |
84.1 |
-0.4 |
79.6 |
74.9 |
-4.7 |
|
Metro
NYC |
82.2 |
77.3 |
-4.9 |
82.6 |
81.9 |
-0.8 |
82.0 |
74.4 |
-7.5 |
|
Women
|
79.4 |
76.6 |
-2.8 |
80.3 |
83.4 |
+3.1 |
78.8 |
72.3 |
-6.5 |
|
Age
55+ |
77.3 |
74.4 |
-2.9 |
80.3 |
80.7 |
+0.4 |
75.4 |
70.3 |
-5.1 |
|
Lower
income |
73.5 |
70.5 |
-3.0 |
72.0 |
71.3 |
-0.7 |
74.4 |
70.1 |
-4.3 |
|
Democrats
|
71.7 |
70.1 |
-1.6 |
75.4 |
76.2 |
+0.8 |
69.3 |
66.2 |
-3.1 |
|
|
Overall Nov. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 93.2 (Republicans) Lowest CCI: 70.1
(Democrats) Only
rise: +0.7 (Upstate
NY) |
Current Nov. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 98.5 (Republicans) Lowest CCI: 71.3
(Lower
income) Greatest
rise: 3.1 (Women) |
Future Nov. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 89.8 (Republicans) Lowest CCI: 66.2
(Democrats) Only
rise: +0.2 (Upstate
NY) |
||||||
Buying plans for are up for cars and trucks, 2.5 points to 15.3%; and for homes, 1.0 point to 5.5%. Buying plans are down for computers, 3.6 points to 12.6%; for furniture, 0.2 of a point to 21.9%; and for major home improvements, 2.8 points to 17.1%.
“After narrowing the gap with the nation last month, New Yorkers have fallen back again,” says Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “Current confidence is particularly dismal: New York is more than 20 points behind the nation as a whole. The heating season has only just begun and high energy prices already are taking their toll. Of course, many New Yorkers were not happy with the election results. Democrats have the lowest confidence of any group.”
The
SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in November 2004 by random
telephone calls to 621 New York State residents over the age of 18. It has a margin of error of + 3.9
points. For more information or
comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance
and statistics and SRI Director, at 518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073
(home). Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.