SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY

 

 

For Immediate Release:  Thursday, February 5, 2004

 

New York Confidence (85.3) highest since March 2002; up 13 pts from last January

Still far below Nation’s Confidence, Which Jumped 11.2 Pts to 103.8

Democrats Increased the Most, But Still 24 pts Below Republicans

All Buying Plans Up

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Supporting Excel spreadsheet documents 1 and 2

 

Loudonville, NY –New York State consumer confidence rose in January for the fourth straight month, up 1.9 points to 85.3, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). This is the highest New York consumer confidence has been since March 2002, when it was also 85.3; it is also 13 points above the January 2003 confidence level.  Although consumer confidence in New York State is up nearly across the board, it is nonetheless 18.5 points below the nation*, which went up a whopping 11.2 points to 103.8. 

 

January 2004

Consumer Confidence:

The

Nation

New York

State

diff.

pnts

 

New York

State

Metro New York City

Upstate

NY
Overall

103.8 (+11.2)

85.3 (+1.9)

18.5

85.3 (+1.9)

87.1 (+1.5)

81.8 (+1.9)

Current

109.5 (+12.5)

88.3 (+1.9)

21.2

88.3 (+1.9)

87.1 (+1.5)

90.6 (+1.9)

Future

100.1 (+10.3)

83.4 (+1.9)

16.7

83.4 (+1.9)

87.1 (+1.5)

76.1 (+1.9)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Each month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.

 

Consumer Confidence in New York State: December 2003/January 2004

(Groups listed in descending order by January’s Overall CCI Rating)

 

Overall

Current

Future

 

Dec

Jan

chng

Dec

Jan

chng

Dec

Jan

chng

Republicans

98.7

103.4

+4.7

108.7

106.8

-1.9

92.2

101.2

+9.0

Higher income

91.0

91.0

no chng

97.4

96.6

-0.8

86.8

87.3

+0.5

Men

89.2

89.2

no chng

94.3

94.0

-0.3

85.9

86.1

+0.2

Under Age 55

86.8

88.1

+1.3

87.9

90.2

+2.3

86.1

86.8

+0.7

Metro NYC

85.6

87.1

+1.5

85.6

87.1

+1.5

85.6

87.1

+1.5

New York State

83.4

85.3

+1.9

86.4

88.3

+1.9

81.5

83.4

+1.9

Upstate NY

79.9

81.8

+1.9

88.7

90.6

+1.9

74.2

76.1

+1.9

Women

78.1

81.3

+3.2

79.6

82.6

+3.0

77.1

80.5

+3.4

Age 55+

77.5

80.5

+3.0

84.5

85.3

+0.8

73.0

77.4

+4.4

Democrats

71.9

79.4

+7.5

75.8

80.7

+4.9

69.3

78.6

+9.3

Lower income

76.5

78.4

+1.9

75.4

75.8

+0.4

77.1

80.0

+2.9

 

Overall Jan. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI:  103.4

(Republicans)               

Lowest CCI:   78.4

(lower income)                    

Greatest Rise: +7.5 

(Democrats)

Current Jan. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 106.8

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI:  75.8

(Lower Income)

Greatest Rise: +4.9

(Democrats) 

Future Jan. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 101.2

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI:  76.1

(Upstate New York)

Greatest Rise:  +9.3

(Democrats)

 

 

All buying plans were up: computers, 1.0 point to 17.3%; major home improvements, 2.3 points to 22.4%; furniture, 1.4 points to 25.6%; home buying, 1.7 points to 8.9%; cars and trucks, 2.3 to 17.1%.

 

“The good news is consumer confidence in New York is up again; the bad news is we fell further behind the nation,” notes Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director.

“It is clear that the rest of the nation is experiencing the economic recovery more than we are.”

 

The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in January 2004 by random telephone calls to 620 New York State residents over the age of 18.  It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.  For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 518-783-2362 (office) and at 518-456-6073 (home).  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.  *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.