Loudonville, NY - It’s that old familiar Christmas shopping season in the Capital Region, comin’ around again. Familiar, at least, insofar as spending plans and projections for 2004 are concerned, according to the annual holiday spending poll conducted by the Siena Research Institute (SRI).

Like the Groundhog Day movie in which Bill Murray awakens day after day to the same day, this holiday season’s projections are mostly within a few points of the last two years’ findings.

Of 1,122 Capital Region residents asked to compare this season’s spending to past years,

11% plan to spend more money on holiday gifts; 26% say less money, and 63% say the same
17% plan to buy for more people; 16% say for fewer people, and 67% say for the same number
15% plan to spend more money per individual on their list; 19% say less money, and 63% say the same amount
A third say their personal finances are better off than last holiday season, 23% say worse off, and 45% say the same

But it’s not going to be the same kind of holiday shopping season for the nation as a whole. Far from a Groundhog Day, Florida, for example, is expected to experience a “Hard Candy Christmas,” owing to a succession of hurricanes and storms which suggest that Lowe’s and The Home Depot - not to mention insurance company premiums - may be getting a greater share of holiday dollars than Wal-Mart or J.C. Penney.

Fortunately, for the nation’s retailers, shopping trends aren’t what that used to be. The old adage that rang true from the Fifties and into the late 20^th century - that a third of retailers’ sales and half of their profits are made in the two months before Christmas – just isn’t so anymore. The credit economy has evolved into an “all on sale, all the time” economy in which people buy what they want when they want it, and pay for it later. In some ways, this takes the pressure off retailers in places like Florida to perform like uber-merchants in the last month of the year.

But back in Albany and its environs, it’s Christmas as usual. And that can be good for retailers, especially with 35% of Capital Region residents planning to spend $1,000 or more on gifts during this holiday season.

But the poorer among us will be hit the hardest:

A third of lower income respondents say they will spend less money on holiday gifts this season, while only a fifth of higher income respondents say so;
Also: 23% of lower income respondents say they will spend less money per gift, as opposed to 16% of higher income respondents.

Many people are skipping the Via Veneto for their shopping pleasure and shopping via Internetto instead. While only 13% of Capital Region residents plan to travel to New York City to do any holiday shopping, 34% plan to venture out to cyberspace for some shopping via the Internet.

“The Capital Area is noted for its stable economy and these figures support that notion,” notes Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, SRI Director and Siena College professor of finance and statistics. “The results from year to year - whether it be spending plans, on-line or New York City shopping, travel, or holiday mood - are amazing in their consistency.”

A whopping 82% say they feel positive about this holiday season, and only 7% say they are afraid to fly because of terrorist threats. Now, one can getting trouble suggesting correlations, but we’ll bet more Capital Region folks are singing, “I’ll Be Home For Christmas” as they wait for their “White Christmas.”

Happy Holidays from the Siena Research Institute.

This SRI survey was conducted November 29-December 2, 2004 by random telephone calls to 1,122 New York State residents over the age of 18. It has a margin of error of + 2.9 percentage points. For more information or comments, please contact Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, SRI Director, at 518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey Cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at: www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.