For
Immediate Release: Wednesday,
September 1, 2004
NYS,
NYC Down; Upstate Future Up Slightly
Democrats
Plummet
Loudonville,
NY – Consumer confidence went down overall in New York State, despite a
3.1 point increase in Upstate New York’s future confidence, according
to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). At 80.2 overall
confidence, New York State is 15.7 points below the nation*; New York State’s
84.9 current confidence is 23 points below the nation.
|
August
2004 Consumer
Confidence: |
The Nation |
New York State |
diff. pts |
|
New York State
|
Metro
New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
95.9
(-0.8) |
80.2
(-5.1) |
15.7 |
80.2
(-5.1) |
80.6
(-8.7) |
79.0
(+0.9) |
|
|
Current |
107.9
(+2.7) |
84.9
(-8.7) |
23.0 |
84.9
(-8.7) |
82.2(-12.1) |
89.8
(-2.6) |
|
|
Future |
88.2
(-3.0) |
77.1
(-2.9) |
11.1 |
77.1
(-2.9) |
79.6
(-6.5) |
72.0
(+3.1) |
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: July/August 2004
(Groups
listed in descending order by August’s Overall CCI
Rating) |
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
July |
August |
chng |
July |
August |
chng |
July |
August |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
99.4 |
96.9 |
-2.5 |
110.2 |
102.7 |
-7.5 |
92.4 |
93.2 |
+0.8 |
|
Higher
income |
92.3 |
84.4 |
-7.9 |
104.6 |
92.1 |
-12.5 |
84.4 |
79.6 |
-4.8 |
|
Men
|
88.6 |
83.0 |
-5.6 |
95.9 |
85.6 |
-10.3 |
83.9 |
81.3 |
-2.6 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
87.4 |
82.1 |
-5.3 |
97.4 |
86.4 |
-11.0 |
81.0 |
79.3 |
-1.7 |
|
Metro
NYC |
89.3 |
80.6 |
-8.7 |
94.3 |
82.2 |
-12.1 |
86.1 |
79.6 |
-6.5 |
|
New
York State
|
85.3 |
80.2 |
-5.1 |
93.6 |
84.9 |
-8.7 |
80.0 |
77.1 |
-2.9 |
|
Upstate
NY |
78.1 |
79.0 |
+0.9 |
92.4 |
89.8 |
-2.6 |
68.9 |
72.0 |
+3.1 |
|
Women
|
82.1 |
77.0 |
-5.1 |
91.3 |
84.1 |
-7.2 |
76.1 |
72.5 |
-3.6 |
|
Age
55+ |
81.8 |
76.3 |
-5.5 |
87.5 |
82.2 |
-5.3 |
78.1 |
72.5 |
-5.6 |
|
Lower
income |
78.2 |
74.8 |
-3.4 |
82.6 |
75.0 |
-7.6 |
75.4 |
74.7 |
-0.7 |
|
Democrats
|
79.1 |
69.5 |
-9.6 |
86.8 |
72.8 |
-14.0 |
74.2 |
67.4 |
-6.8 |
|
|
Overall Aug. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 96.9 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
69.5
(Democrats)
Greatest
drop: -9.6 (Democrats) |
Current Aug. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 102.7 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
72.8
(Democrats) Greatest
drop: -14.0 (Democrats)
|
Future Aug. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 93.2 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
67.4
(Democrats) Greatest
drop: -6.8 (Democrats) |
||||||
Despite the drops in consumer confidence, the only buying
plans that are down are for cars and trucks, down 0.5 of a point to 11.8%.
Buying plans are up for computers, by 1.7 points to 14.1%; homes, by 1.9 points
to 7.7%, furniture, by 1.1 points to 21.1%, and major home improvements, by 4.5
points to 19.5%.
“Consumer confidence is jumping all over the place in
reaction to current events, and then settling back again the next month,” says
Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and
SRI Director. “Last
month, concurrent with their National Convention, Democrats were up almost 10
points; this month down nearly 10 points. New
York City reacted likewise. No
trends are being established.”
The
SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in August 2004 by random
telephone calls to 626 New York State residents over the age of 18.
It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.
For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom,
Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at
518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and
frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.