SIENA
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY
For
Immediate Release: Friday, January
16, 2004
New
York State Consumer Confidence hits 20-month high
Overall
Confidence Up Everywhere
Current Confidence for Republicans Surges
All
Buying Plans Down
View the Microsoft Word Version View Microsoft Excel Crosstabs
Loudonville,
NY –New
York State consumer confidence continued to rise in December, up 5.2 points to
83.4, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute
(SRI). This is the highest New York consumer confidence has been since April
2002, when it was at 84.6. New York
State is now 9.2 points below the nation’s* overall consumer
confidence, which decreased 1.1 points to 92.6 (In November, NYS was below by
15.5 points).
|
December
2003 Consumer
Confidence: |
The Nation |
New
York State |
Diff. points |
|
New
York State
|
Metro New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
92.6 |
83.4 |
9.2 |
83.4 |
85.6 |
79.9 |
|
|
Current |
97.0 |
86.4 |
10.6 |
86.4 |
85.6 |
88.7 |
|
|
Future |
89.8 |
81.5 |
8.3 |
81.5 |
85.6 |
74.2 |
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Confidence
is up nearly across the board, the only exceptions reflected in the future
confidence of Republicans (down 0.7 to 92.2) and Democrats (down 1.7 to 69.3).
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: November/December 2003
(Groups
listed in descending order by December’s Overall CCI Rating) |
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
Nov |
Dec |
chng |
Nov |
Dec |
chng |
Nov |
Dec |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
94.2 |
98.7 |
+4.5 |
96.2 |
108.7 |
+12.5 |
92.9 |
92.2 |
-0.7 |
|
Higher
income |
83.4 |
91.0 |
+7.6 |
92.1 |
97.4 |
+5.3 |
77.8 |
86.8 |
+9.0 |
|
Men
|
83.4 |
89.2 |
+5.8 |
84.5 |
94.3 |
+9.8 |
82.7 |
85.9 |
+3.2 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
80.5 |
86.8 |
+6.3 |
81.1 |
87.9 |
+6.8 |
80.0 |
86.1 |
+6.1 |
|
Metro
NYC |
79.9 |
85.6 |
+5.7 |
79.2 |
85.6 |
+6.4 |
80.3 |
85.6 |
+5.3 |
|
New
York State
|
78.2 |
83.4 |
+5.2 |
80.0 |
86.4 |
+6.4 |
77.1 |
81.5 |
+4.4 |
|
Upstate
NY |
74.8 |
79.9 |
+5.1 |
81.5 |
88.7 |
+7.2 |
70.6 |
74.2 |
+3.6 |
|
Women
|
73.3 |
78.1 |
+4.8 |
75.8 |
79.6 |
+3.8 |
71.8 |
77.1 |
+5.3 |
|
Age
55+ |
72.6 |
77.5 |
+4.9 |
76.9 |
84.5 |
+7.6 |
69.8 |
73.0 |
+3.2 |
|
Lower
income |
73.1 |
76.5 |
+3.4 |
67.1 |
75.4 |
+8.3 |
76.9 |
77.1 |
+0.2 |
|
Democrats
|
71.7 |
71.9 |
+0.2 |
72.8 |
75.8 |
+3.0 |
71.0 |
69.3 |
-1.7 |
|
|
Overall Dec. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 98.7 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
71.9
(Democrats)
Greatest
Rise: 7.6 (Higher
Income) |
Current Dec. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 108.7 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
75.4
(Lower
Income) Greatest
Rise: 12.5 (Republicans)
|
Future Dec. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 92.2 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
69.3
(Democrats) Greatest
Rise: 9.0 (Higher
income) |
||||||
All
buying plans were down: computers, 4.1 points to 16.3%; major home improvements,
3.5 points to 20.1%; furniture, 1 point to 24.2%; home buying, 1 point to 7.2%;
cars and trucks, 0.9 to 14.8%.
“We
have an interesting scenario developing,” notes Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics
and finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “Confidence
is up, but spending plans are down.
Consumer spending has been driving the economy for the past several years, but
that may be coming to an end. The
high consumer debt load may be catching up with us.”
The
SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in December 2003 by random
telephone calls to 624 New York State residents over the age of 18.
It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.
For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom,
Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at
727-939-3774. Survey
cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.