Bush’s Post-Convention Boost Over in New York
Kerry Leads Bush 51% - 31%
Loudonville, NY –
Although most polls showed increased support for President Bush following the
Republican National Convention, even in New York State with its majority
Democrat population, that support has clearly waned, according to the latest
statewide poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI).
SRI’s poll shows John
Kerry leads George Bush 51%/31% among registered likely voters in New York
State, a 20-point lead. Ralph Nader drew 2%; 12% said they were unsure, and 5%
gave no opinion or refused.
Question: If the election for president were held
today, and the candidates were (rotate) George W. Bush the Republican, John
Kerry the Democrat, and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?
|
Sept. 20-23, 2004 |
Bush/Cheney |
Kerry/Edwards |
Nader/Camejo |
Unsure |
no opinion/ refused |
|
Registered likely voters |
31% |
51% |
2% |
12% |
5% |
Support for both Bush
and Kerry is strong; three-quarters of voters said they “strongly support”
their candidate, and only a small number said they “might vote differently on
election day.” By contrast, 52% of Nader’s supporters said they “might
vote differently on election day.”
Question: Would you say you strongly support
(candidate), somewhat support him, or do you think you might vote differently on
election day?
|
Sept. 20-23, 2004 Registered likely voters |
strongly support |
somewhat support |
might vote differently |
Unsure |
no opinion /refused |
|
Bush/Cheney |
75% |
19% |
5% |
1% |
0% |
|
Kerry/Edwards |
74% |
20% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
|
Nader/Camejo |
24% |
10% |
52% |
10% |
5% |
“John Kerry’s lead
over George W. Bush has returned to pre-Convention levels,” notes Joe Caruso,
director of polling for the Siena Research Institute. “Recent polls have shown
that following the hype of the Republican National Convention held in New York
City, Bush support swelled and the margin between the candidates narrowed, even
in heavily Democratic New York State. The SRI poll in July showed Kerry’s lead
over Bush 51%/29%. Our poll today shows that the Bush gain in New York proved to
be short-lived.”
This SRI survey was conducted September 20-23, 2004 by random telephone
calls to 1,121 registered voters in New York State. It has an overall margin of error of + 2.9 for the population of registered voters likely
to vote in the presidential election. For more information or comments, please
contact Joe Caruso, SRI Director of Polling, at 518-783-2901 (office) or
518-542-7814 (mobile). Survey Cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at:
www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.