For
Immediate Release: Monday, August
2, 2004
NYS
Up Substantially; Metro NYC Soars
Democrats
Current Confidence Jumps 15.5 Points
But: ALL Buying Plans Down
|
July
2004 Consumer
Confidence: |
The Nation |
New York State |
diff. pts |
|
New York State
|
Metro
New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
96.7 (+1.1) |
85.3 (+6.6) |
11.4 |
85.3 (+6.6) |
89.3 (+9.3) |
78.1 (+2.1) |
|
|
Current |
105.2 (-1.5) |
93.6(+12.1) |
11.6 |
93.6(+12.1) |
94.3(+15.9) |
92.4 (+5.6) |
|
|
Future |
91.2 (+2.7) |
80.0 (+3.1) |
11.2 |
80.0 (+3.1) |
86.1 (+5.1) |
68.9 (-0.2) |
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: June/July 2004
(Groups
listed in descending order by July’s Overall CCI Rating)
|
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
June |
July |
chng |
June |
July |
chng |
June |
July |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
96.6 |
99.4 |
+2.8 |
102.3 |
110.2 |
+7.9 |
92.9 |
92.4 |
-0.5 |
|
Higher
income |
84.7 |
92.3 |
+7.6 |
91.3 |
104.6 |
+13.3 |
80.5 |
84.4 |
+3.9 |
|
Metro
NYC |
80.0 |
89.3 |
+9.3 |
78.4 |
94.3 |
+15.9 |
81.0 |
86.1 |
+5.1 |
|
Men
|
83.3 |
88.6 |
+5.3 |
84.5 |
95.9 |
+11.4 |
82.5 |
83.9 |
+1.4 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
78.2 |
87.4 |
+9.2 |
80.0 |
97.4 |
+17.4 |
77.1 |
81.0 |
+3.9 |
|
New
York State
|
78.7 |
85.3 |
+6.6 |
81.5 |
93.6 |
+12.1 |
76.9 |
80.0 |
+3.1 |
|
Women
|
75.0 |
82.1 |
+7.1 |
79.2 |
91.3 |
+12.1 |
72.3 |
76.1 |
+3.8 |
|
Age
55+ |
79.1 |
81.8 |
+2.7 |
83.7 |
87.5 |
+3.8 |
76.1 |
78.1 |
+2.0 |
|
Democrats
|
70.7 |
79.1 |
+8.4 |
71.3 |
86.8 |
+15.5 |
70.3 |
74.2 |
+3.9 |
|
Lower
income |
70.7 |
78.2 |
+7.5 |
69.7 |
82.6 |
+12.9 |
71.3 |
75.4 |
+4.1 |
|
Upstate
NY |
76.0 |
78.1 |
+2.1 |
86.8 |
92.4 |
+5.6 |
69.1 |
68.9 |
-0.2 |
|
|
Overall July CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 99.4 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
78.1
(Upstate
NY)
Greatest
rise: 9.3 (Metro
NYC) |
Current July CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 110.2 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
82.6
(Lower
income) Greatest
rise: 17.4 (Under
Age 55) |
Future July CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 92.4 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
68.9
(Upstate
NY) Greatest
rise: 5.1 (Metro
NYC) |
||||||
Buying plans are down for: cars and trucks, by 1.6 points
to 12.3%; computers, by 1.5 points to 12.4%; homes, by 1.1 points to 5.8%,
furniture, by 3.1 points to 20.0%, and major home improvements, by 8.1 points to
15.0%.
“We
have a strange situation with New York State’s consumer confidence,” says Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of
statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “Consumer
confidence leapt forward in July, due mainly to New York City. At the same time,
buying plans for major items dropped, as our survey predicted last month.
Consumers are faced with mixed messages. They see the economy improving, jobs
being created and some optimism over the turnover of government in Iraq - - all
of this tempered by high energy prices, increased interest rates and a huge debt
load that hurts them in their wallets.”
The
SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in July 2004 by random telephone
calls to 620 New York State residents over the age of 18.
It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.
For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom,
Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at
518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and
frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.