For
Immediate Release: Monday, July 12,
2004
Gap
widens as State drops slightly while Nation makes modest gains
Future Confidence Gloomy Upstate; Buying
Plans Mixed
Microsoft Word Version
Loudonville, NY – The
gap between U.S. and New York State overall consumer confidence widened in June,
as New York’s confidence dropped 0.6 of a point to 78.7 while the Nation’s
confidence rose 5.4 points to 95.6, according to the latest poll by the Siena
(College) Research Institute (SRI). The gap in current
confidence remains high, with New York State 25.2 points below the nation.*
|
June
2004 Consumer
Confidence: |
The Nation |
New York State |
diff. pts |
|
New York State
|
Metro
New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
95.6
(+5.4) |
78.7
(-0.6) |
16.9 |
78.7
(-0.6) |
80.0
(-1.8) |
76.0
(+1.8) |
|
|
Current |
106.7
(+3.1) |
81.5
(+1.2) |
25.2 |
81.5
(+1.2) |
78.4
(-1.1) |
86.8
(+4.9) |
|
|
Future |
88.5
(+6.9) |
76.9
(-1.7) |
11.6 |
76.9
(-1.7) |
81.0
(-2.2) |
69.1
(-0.2) |
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: May/June 2004
(Groups
listed in descending order by June’s Overall CCI Rating)
|
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
May |
June |
chng |
May |
June |
chng |
May |
June |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
94.8 |
96.6 |
+1.8 |
100.0 |
102.3 |
+2.3 |
91.5 |
92.9 |
+1.4 |
|
Higher
income |
86.2 |
84.7 |
-1.5 |
90.2 |
91.3 |
+1.1 |
83.7 |
80.5 |
-3.2 |
|
Men
|
83.0 |
83.3 |
+0.3 |
83.0 |
84.5 |
+1.5 |
83.0 |
82.5 |
-0.5 |
|
Metro
NYC |
81.8 |
80.0 |
-1.8 |
79.6 |
78.4 |
-1.1 |
83.2 |
81.0 |
-2.2 |
|
Age
55+ |
77.3 |
79.1 |
+1.8 |
81.5 |
83.7 |
+2.2 |
74.7 |
76.1 |
+1.4 |
|
New
York State
|
79.3 |
78.7 |
-0.6 |
80.3 |
81.5 |
+1.2 |
78.6 |
76.9 |
-1.7 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
80.5 |
78.2 |
-2.3 |
79.2 |
80.0 |
+0.8 |
81.3 |
77.1 |
-4.2 |
|
Upstate
NY |
74.2 |
76.0 |
+1.8 |
81.9 |
86.8 |
+4.9 |
69.3 |
69.1 |
-0.2 |
|
Women
|
75.7 |
75.0 |
-0.7 |
77.3 |
79.2 |
+1.9 |
74.7 |
72.3 |
-2.4 |
|
Democrats
|
73.6 |
70.7 |
-2.9 |
75.0 |
71.3 |
-3.7 |
72.7 |
70.3 |
-2.4 |
|
Lower
income |
70.1 |
70.7 |
+0.6 |
68.2 |
69.7 |
+1.5 |
71.3 |
71.3 |
no
chng. |
|
|
Overall June CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 96.6 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
70.7
(Democrats,
lower income)
Greatest
drop: -2.9 (Democrats) |
Current June CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 102.3 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
69.7
(Lower
income) Greatest
rise: +4.9 (Upstate
NY) Greatest
drop: -3.7 (Democrats) |
Future June CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 92.9 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
69.1
(Upstate
NY) Greatest
drop: -4.2 (Under
Age 55) |
||||||
Buying
plans are down for: cars and trucks, by 2.1 points to 13.9%; computers, by 0.3
points to 13.9%; and homes, by 0.8 points to 6.9%. Buying plans are up for:
furniture, by 2.0 points to 23.1%; and
major home
improvements, by 2.9 points to 23.1%.
“Future
confidence is particularly gloomy upstate,” says Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and
finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “Upstate’s future confidence is
more than 10 points below the New York City area and nearly 20 points below the
nation. Since the index is a
leading indicator, this is not a good sign for future spending.”
The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in June 2004 by random telephone calls to 620 New York State residents over the age of 18. It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points. For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.