SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY

 

For Immediate Release:  Tuesday, June 8, 2004

 

Microsoft Word version

Microsoft Excel sheet 1 and  sheet 2

 

New York State Consumer Confidence Holds Steady; Nation down 4 Points

All Buying Plans Plummet

Republican Future Confidence Down Nearly 10 Points This Year

 

Loudonville, NY – The gap between U.S. and New York State overall consumer confidence narrowed a bit in May, as New York’s confidence held its own, rising 0.2 of a point to 79.3, while the Nation’s confidence dropped 4.0 points to 90.2, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). The gap in current confidence remains high, with New York 23.3 points below the nation.* 

 

April 2004

Consumer Confidence:

The

Nation

New York

State

diff.

pts

 

New York

State

Metro New York City

Upstate

NY
Overall

90.2

79.3

10.9

79.3 (+0.2)

81.8 (+0.7)

74.2 (-1.7)

Current

103.6

80.3

23.3

80.3 (-1.6)

79.6 (-0.8)

81.9 (-3.4)

Future

81.6

78.6

3.0

78.6 (+1.2)

83.2 (+1.7)

69.3 (-0.5)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Each month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.

 

Consumer Confidence in New York State: April/May 2004

(Groups listed in descending order by May’s Overall CCI Rating)

 

Overall

Current

Future

 

Apr

May

chng

Apr

May

chng

Apr

May

chng

Republicans

98.2

94.8

-3.4

101.9

100.0

-1.9

95.8

91.5

-4.3

Higher income

81.9

86.2

+4.3

88.3

90.2

+1.9

77.8

83.7

+5.9

Men

84.2

83.0

-1.2

87.1

83.0

-4.1

82.2

83.0

+0.8

Metro NYC

81.0

81.8

+0.8

80.3

79.6

-0.8

81.5

83.2

+1.7

Under Age 55

81.2

80.5

-0.7

83.7

79.2

-4.5

79.6

81.3

+1.7

New York State

79.1

79.3

+0.2

81.9

80.3

-1.6

77.4

78.6

+1.2

Age 55+

75.4

77.3

+1.9

77.7

81.5

+3.8

74.0

74.7

+0.7

Women

74.4

75.7

+1.3

76.9

77.3

+0.4

72.7

74.7

+2.0

Upstate NY

75.9

74.2

-1.7

85.3

81.9

-3.4

69.8

69.3

-0.5

Democrats

73.2

73.6

+0.4

72.4

75.0

+2.6

73.7

72.7

-1.0

Lower income

74.1

70.1

-4.0

72.4

68.2

-4.2

75.2

71.3

-3.9

 

Overall May CCI Stats:

Highest CCI:  94.8

(Republicans)               

Lowest CCI:  70.1

(Lower income)                    

Greatest drop:  -4.0

( Lower income)

Greatest rise: +4.3

(Higher income)

Current May CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 100.0 

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI:  68.2

(Lower income)

Greatest drop: -4.5

(under age 55)

Greatest rise: +3.8

(Age 55+) 

Future May CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 91.5

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI: 69.3 

(Upstate NY)

Greatest drop: -4.3 

(Republicans)

Greatest rise:  +5.9

(Higher income)

 

All buying plans are down, including: cars and trucks, down 1.9 points to 16.0%; computers, down 4.8 points to 14.2%; furniture, down 5.5 points to 21.1%; homes, down 2.0 points to 7.7%; and major home improvements, down 5.0 points to 20.2%.

 

 “Gas prices have finally hit the pocket book,” says Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “It’s clear that consumers are cutting back on other purchases because they have to spend so much on energy.”

The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in May 2004 by random telephone calls to 620 New York State residents over the age of 18.  It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.  For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.  *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.