For
Immediate Release: Wednesday, May
5, 2004
NYS
Consumer Confidence Drops 2.1 pts to 79.1 in April; 15 pts below Nation
Upstate “Future” Confidence Particularly Gloomy
All
Buying Plans Up
Microsoft Word version
Microsoft
Excel sheet1, sheet2
Loudonville,
NY – Despite
a drop in consumer confidence in most of New York State, buying plans are up,
according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute
(SRI). Still, at 79.1, overall statewide consumer confidence is 9.6 points
higher than it was in April 2003, but considerably below the nation*, which went
down 1.6 points to 94.2.
|
April
2004 Consumer
Confidence: |
The Nation |
New
York State |
diff. pts |
|
New
York State
|
Metro New York City
|
Upstate NY |
Overall
|
94.2
(-1.6) |
79.1
(-2.1) |
15.1 |
79.1
(-2.1) |
81.0
(-1.2) |
75.9
(-2.6) |
|
|
Current |
105.0
(-1.8) |
81.9
(-1.5) |
23.1 |
81.9
(-1.5) |
80.3
(+0.8) |
85.3
(-5.3) |
|
|
Future |
87.3
(-1.5) |
77.4
(-2.4) |
9.9 |
77.4
(-2.4) |
81.5
(-2.4) |
69.8
(-1.0) |
Each
month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New
York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to
all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s
Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future
consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer
confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro
New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.
Consumer
Confidence in New York State: March/April 2004
(Groups
listed in descending order by April’s Overall CCI
Rating) |
|||||||||
|
|
Overall |
Current |
Future |
||||||
|
|
Mar |
Apr |
chng |
Mar |
Apr |
chng |
Mar |
Apr |
chng |
|
Republicans
|
96.4 |
98.2 |
+1.8 |
102.3 |
101.9 |
-0.4 |
92.7 |
95.8 |
+3.1 |
|
Men
|
81.3 |
84.2 |
+2.9 |
84.1 |
87.1 |
+3.0 |
79.6 |
82.2 |
+2.6 |
|
Higher
income |
86.1 |
81.9 |
-4.2 |
91.3 |
88.3 |
-3.0 |
82.7 |
77.8 |
-4.9 |
|
Under
Age 55 |
84.6 |
81.2 |
-3.4 |
85.3 |
83.7 |
-1.6 |
84.2 |
79.6 |
-4.6 |
|
Metro
NYC |
82.2 |
81.0 |
-1.2 |
79.6 |
80.3 |
+0.7 |
83.9 |
81.5 |
-2.4 |
|
New
York State
|
81.2 |
79.1 |
-2.1 |
83.4 |
81.9
|
-1.5 |
79.8 |
77.4 |
-2.4 |
|
Upstate
NY |
78.5 |
75.9 |
-2.6 |
90.6 |
85.3 |
-5.3 |
70.8 |
69.8 |
-1.0 |
|
Age
55+ |
74.8 |
75.4 |
+0.6 |
80.0 |
77.7 |
-2.3 |
71.5 |
74.0 |
+2.5 |
|
Women
|
80.6 |
74.4 |
-6.2 |
82.6 |
76.9 |
-5.7 |
79.3 |
72.7 |
-6.6 |
|
Lower
income |
74.4 |
74.1 |
-0.3 |
73.1 |
72.4 |
-0.7 |
75.2 |
75.2 |
no
chng |
|
Democrats
|
75.4 |
73.2 |
-2.2 |
76.2 |
72.4 |
-3.8 |
74.9 |
73.7 |
-1.2 |
|
|
Overall Apr. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 98.2 (Republicans)
Lowest CCI:
73.2
(Democrats)
Greatest
drop: -6.2 (women) Greatest
rise: 2.9 (men) |
Current Apr. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 101.9 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
72.4
(Democrats,
lower inc.) Greatest
drop: -5.7 (women) Greatest
rise: 3.0 (men)
|
Future Apr. CCI Stats: Highest
CCI: 95.8 (Republicans) Lowest CCI:
69.8
(Upstate
NY) Greatest
drop: -6.6 (women) Greatest
rise: 3.1 (Republicans)
|
||||||
All
buying plans were up: computers, up 3.7 points to 19.0%; cars and trucks, up 3.3
points to 17.9%; home buying, up 2.8 points to 9.7%; major home improvements, up
0.8 of a point to 25.2%; and furniture, up 0.2 of a point to 26.6%.
“The
consumer is being whip-sawed,” says
Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and
SRI Director. “There’s good news one day, bad the next. Jobs
are up but so are energy prices; the stock market is fluctuating; interest rates
are low but threatening to rise; corporate earnings are decent but may bring
inflation. It leads to the strange
situation we have now where confidence is down but spending plans are up.”
The
SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in April 2004 by random
telephone calls to 620 New York State residents over the age of 18.
It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.
For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom,
Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at
518-783-2362 (office) or 518-456-6073 (home). Survey cross-tabulations and
frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp. *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.