For Immediate Release:  Thursday, April 15, 2004

NYS Consumer Confidence Holds Steady in March; Still, Nearly 15 pts below Nation

Upstate “Future” Confidence 20 pts below “Current” Confidence

Buying Plans Down Except for Furniture

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Loudonville, NY – Consumer confidence in Upstate New York dropped 2 points in March, while confidence in metro New York City went up six tenths of a point - - resulting in a drop in overall confidence of a mere tenth of a point, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). Overall statewide consumer confidence is 13.2 points higher than it was in March 2003, but still considerably below the nation*, which went up 1.4 points to 95.8.

March 2004

Consumer Confidence:

The

Nation

New York

State

diff.

pts

 

New York

State

Metro New York City

Upstate

NY

Overall

  95.8   (+1.4)

81.2  (-0.1)

14.6

81.2  (-0.1)

82.2 (+0.6)

78.5 (-2.0)

Current

106.8   (+3.2)

83.4  (+0.4)

23.4

83.4  (+0.4)

79.6 (+1.5)

90.6no chng

Future

  88.8   (+0.3)

79.8  (-0.5)

 9.0

79.8  (-0.5)

83.9 no chng

70.8 (-3.2)

 

Each month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.

 

Consumer Confidence in New York State: February/March 2004

(Groups listed in descending order by March’s Overall CCI Rating)

 

Overall

Current

Future

 

Feb

Mar

chng

Feb

Mar

chng

Feb

Mar

chng

Republicans

97.8

96.4

-1.4

99.3

102.3

+3.0

96.8

92.7

-4.1

Higher income

87.3

86.1

-1.2

89.8

91.3

+1.5

85.6

82.7

-2.9

Under Age 55

84.6

84.6

no chng

85.3

85.3

no chng

84.2

84.2

no chng

Metro NYC

81.6

82.2

+0.6

78.1

79.6

+1.5

83.9

83.9

no chng

Men

85.9

81.3

-4.6

86.8

84.1

-2.7

85.4

79.6

-5.8

New York State

81.3

81.2

-0.1

83.0

83.4

+0.4

80.3

79.8

-0.5

Women

77.3

80.6

+3.3

79.6

82.6

+3.0

75.9

79.3

+3.4

Upstate NY

80.5

78.5

-2.0

90.6

90.6

no chng

74.0

70.8

-3.2

Democrats

73.8

75.4

+1.6

71.6

76.2

+4.6

75.2

74.9

-0.3

Age 55+

73.6

74.8

+1.2

77.7

80.0

+2.3

71.0

71.5

+0.5

Lower income

74.7

74.4

-0.3

74.7

73.1

-1.6

74.7

75.2

+0.5

 

Overall Mar. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI:  96.4

(Republicans)               

Lowest CCI:   74.4

(lower income)                    

Greatest drop: -4.6 

(men)

Greatest rise: +3.3

(women)

Current Mar. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 102.3

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI:  73.1

(lower income)

Greatest drop: -2.7

(men)

Greatest rise: +4.6

(Democrats) 

Future Mar. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 92.7

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI:  70.8

(Upstate NY)

Greatest drop: -5.8

(men)

Greatest rise: +3.4

(women) 

 

 

Buying plans were mixed: major home improvements, down 0.9 of a point to 24.4%; computers, down 4.4 points to 15.3%; cars and trucks, down 4.8 points to 14.6%; home buying, down 0.4 of a point to 6.9%; and furniture, up 3.5 points to 26.4%.

 

“Consumer Confidence in New York State held steady in March because of mixed economic news,” notes Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “High energy prices and a flat stock market were offset by gains in employment.

 

The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in March 2004 by random telephone calls to 622 New York State residents over the age of 18.  It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.  For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 518-456-6073 (home) or 518-783-2362 (office).  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.  *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.