SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIENA COLLEGE, LOUDONVILLE, NY

 

For Immediate Release:  Thursday, March 4, 2004

 

New York Consumer Confidence down 4 points to 81.3

All Numbers Down But One

New York Still far below (13 pts) the Nation’s Confidence, Which Dropped  9.4 Pts to 94.4

Buying Plans Mixed

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Loudonville, NY – After four months of advances, New York State consumer confidence fell 4 points in February to 81.3, according to the latest poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). Overall statewide consumer confidence is 16.1 points higher than it was in February 2003, but still considerably below the nation*, which dropped 9.4 points to 94.4.

 

February 2004

Consumer Confidence:

The

Nation

New York

State

diff.

pnts

 

New York

State

Metro New York City

Upstate

NY

Overall

  94.4   (-9.4)

81.3 (-4.0)

13.1

81.3 (-4.0)

81.6 (-5.5)

80.5 (-1.3)

Current

103.6   (-5.9)

83.0 (-5.3)

20.6

83.0 (-5.3)

78.1 (-9.1)

90.6no chng

Future

  88.5 (-11.6)

80.3 (-3.1)

 8.2

80.3 (-3.1)

83.9 (-3.2)

74.0 (-2.1)

 

Each month, the SRI survey establishes a Consumer Confidence index number for New York State consumers. This index number allows a comparison of New Yorkers to all Americans (“the nation”) as surveyed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index. The SRI survey measures current and future consumer confidence, which combined provides the overall consumer confidence. SRI further looks at confidence in New York State by region (metro New York City and Upstate), age, income, gender and party.

 

Consumer Confidence in New York State: January/February 2004

(Groups listed in descending order by February’s Overall CCI Rating)

 

Overall

Current

Future

 

Jan

Feb

chng

Jan

Feb

chng

Jan

Feb

chng

Republicans

103.4

97.8

-5.6

106.8

99.3

-7.5

101.2

96.8

-4.4

Higher income

91.0

87.3

-3.7

96.6

89.8

-6.8

87.3

85.6

-1.7

Men

89.2

85.9

-3.3

94.0

86.8

-7.2

86.1

85.4

-0.7

Under Age 55

88.1

84.6

-3.5

90.2

85.3

-4.9

86.8

84.2

-2.6

Metro NYC

87.1

81.6

-5.5

87.1

78.1

-9.1

87.1

83.9

-3.2

New York State

85.3

81.3

-4.0

88.3

83.0

-5.3

83.4

80.3

-3.1

Upstate NY

81.8

80.5

-1.3

90.6

90.6

no chng

76.1

74.0

-2.1

Women

81.3

77.3

-4.0

82.6

79.6

-3.0

80.5

75.9

-4.6

Lower income

78.4

74.7

-3.7

75.8

74.7

-1.1

80.0

74.7

-5.3

Democrats

79.4

73.8

-5.6

80.7

71.6

-9.1

78.6

75.2

-3.4

Age 55+

80.5

73.6

-6.9

85.3

77.7

-7.6

77.4

71.0

-6.4

 

Overall Feb. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI:  97.8

(Republicans)               

Lowest CCI:   73.6

(Age 55+)                    

Greatest drop: -6.9 

(Age 55+)

Current Feb. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 99.3

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI:  71.6

(Democrats)

Greatest drop: -9.1

(Democrats, Metro NYC) 

Future Feb. CCI Stats:

Highest CCI: 96.8

(Republicans)

Lowest CCI:  71.0

(Age 55+)

Greatest drop: -6.4

(Age 55+)

 

 

Buying plans were mixed: major home improvements, up 2.9 points to 25.3%; computers, up 2.4 points to 19.7%; cars and trucks, up 2.3 to 19.4%; furniture, down 2.7 points to 22.9%; and home buying, down 1.6 points to 7.3%;

 

“Consumer confidence is so fragile right now that any news, good or bad, moves it up or down,” notes Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI Director. “Unfortunately, this month bad news prevailed. Alan Greenspan’s concerns about social security sent tremors through the economy, and workers are still worried about their jobs.

 

The SRI survey of Consumer Confidence was conducted in February 2004 by random telephone calls to 620 New York State residents over the age of 18.  It has a margin of error of + 3.9 points.  For more information or comments, please call Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor of finance and statistics and SRI Director, at 727-939-3774.  Survey cross-tabulations and frequencies can be found at www.siena.edu/sri/surveys.asp.  *National data compiled by the University of Michigan.